{"id":111961,"date":"2020-01-28T19:05:09","date_gmt":"2020-01-28T19:05:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/?page_id=111961"},"modified":"2021-11-04T15:44:32","modified_gmt":"2021-11-04T15:44:32","slug":"vota-2020-galway-west-tg4-ipsos-mrbi-poll","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/information\/press\/press-releases\/2020-2\/vota-2020-galway-west-tg4-ipsos-mrbi-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00f3ta 2020 – Galway West TG4 \/ Ipsos MRBI Poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Social Democrats and The Green Party in battle to take seats in 5-seater Galway West Constituency. <\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The results of a TG4\/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll carried out for \u2018V\u00f3ta 2020\u2019<\/em> programme shows a real dog-fight is in prospect in Galway West, with all five sitting TDs and as many as five other candidates all in contention to be elected.\u00a0 The quota in Galway West is 17%, and although no one candidate has enough first preference votes to reach the quota according to the poll, the competition will be fierce for the five seats.<\/p>\n

The TG4 Ipsos MRBI Galway West constituency poll was conducted among a sample of 525 adults aged 18 upwards.\u00a0 Interviewing took place on the 24th<\/sup> and 26th<\/sup> of January
\n 
\n 
\n <\/p>\n

Galway West Individual Party Support (1st preference)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
 <\/td>\nParty<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nPoll ’20<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nGE ’16<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hildegarde NAUGHTON<\/strong><\/td>\nFine Gael<\/td>\n13%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c9amon \u00d3 CU\u00cdV<\/strong><\/td>\nFianna F\u00e1il<\/td>\n12%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n15%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Niall \u00d3 TUATHAIL<\/strong><\/td>\nSocial Democrats<\/td>\n12%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pauline O’REILLY<\/strong><\/td>\nThe Green Party<\/td>\n10%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Se\u00e1n KYNE<\/strong><\/td>\nFine Gael<\/td>\n10%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Catherine CONNOLLY<\/strong><\/td>\nIndependent<\/td>\n9%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ollie CROWE<\/strong><\/td>\nFianna F\u00e1il<\/td>\n8%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Noel GREALISH<\/strong><\/td>\nIndependent<\/td>\n7%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mair\u00e9ad FARRELL<\/strong><\/td>\nSinn F\u00e9in<\/td>\n7%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N\u00edall McNELIS<\/strong><\/td>\nLabour<\/td>\n5%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike CUBBARD<\/strong><\/td>\nIndependent<\/td>\n3%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Joe LOUGHNANE<\/strong><\/td>\nSolidarity People Before Profit<\/td>\n2%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cormac \u00d3 CORCOR\u00c1IN<\/strong><\/td>\nAont\u00fa<\/td>\n1%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 
\n 
\n <\/p>\n

Galway West Constituency Party Support (1st preference)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
 <\/td>\nPoll ’20<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nGE ’16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fine Gael<\/td>\n23%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n24%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fianna F\u00e1il<\/td>\n20%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n24%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sinn F\u00e9in<\/td>\n7%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Labour<\/td>\n5%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Social Democrats<\/td>\n12%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Green Party<\/td>\n10%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Independent\/Other<\/td>\n22%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 
\n 
\nThe Galway West constituency is always hotly contested.\u00a0 It was Count 9 when the first TD was elected in Galway West in 2016, and Count 13 before anyone else was elected.\u00a0 Since 2016, the constituency boundaries have been tweaked once again with some areas transferred to Galway East and some Mayo areas transferred back to Mayo.\u00a0 15 names are on the ballot this time around and the competition for seats will be even more intense.\u00a0 As ever, transfers will be vital.<\/p>\n

When we look at party support on a combined candidate basis, both Fine Gael (with 23%) and Fianna F\u00e1il (with 20%) exceed one quota, so it is very likely that each party will win at least one seat. Fianna F\u00e1il and Fine Gael have high profile candidates in Galway West and both are right up there on the evidence of this poll, with \u00c9amon \u00d3 Cu\u00edv (on 12%) and Minister of State Se\u00e1n Kyne (on 10%), slightly down on 2016 but both within the margin of error of 4% on this particular poll.<\/p>\n

Emphasising how competitive this election is however is the fact that neither of these two candidates tops this poll.\u00a0 That achievement belongs to Fine Gael\u2019s other sitting TD, Hildegarde Naughton, who at 13% has substantially improved on her general election figure in 2016.<\/p>\n

The second Fianna F\u00e1il candidate, Galway City Councillor Ollie Crowe, can also be satisfied with his score of 8% in this poll as he is a new candidate in 2020, and is building on expanding his solid support base in the city to the rest of the constituency.\u00a0 Fianna F\u00e1il and Fine Gael both fall well short of 2 quotas; FG on 23% and FF on 20%, however with both sitting FG TDs have performed well in this poll, both parties will feel they have a good chance of claiming a second seat in Galway West.<\/p>\n

Many had tipped either Niall \u00d3 Tuathail from the Social Democrats or Pauline O’Reilly the Green Party spokesperson for Children and Youth Affairs to poll well this time, so for both of them to be right in the mix (on 12% and 10% respectively) could be seen as a surprise, however both have been very active in building on solid foundations; \u00d3 Tuathail from a good showing in the 2016 general election and O’Reilly from last year’s local elections.\u00a0 Both look to have a real chance from the results of this poll, which in particular shows them proving very popular with younger voters.<\/p>\n

Both sitting Independent TDs, Noel Grealish and Catherine Connolly have also shown well in this poll, polling well on 7% and 9% respectively. Both are very experienced election campaigners with strong bases and have traditionally been beneficiaries of transfers. In many ways the distribution of transfers looks crucial in determining the result of this election.<\/p>\n

While Sinn F\u00e9in’s vote is down on 2016, they have recovered well after a poor local election last year and with a new candidate in Mair\u00e9ad Farrell, they will also take positives that they can build on her poll score of 7% with plenty of time left in the campaign, and the party\u2019s national support seemingly on the rise.<\/p>\n

The margin of error of this poll is 4%, the same figure that is between the Top 6 candidates in this Ipsos MRBI poll.\u00a0 Last time as said earlier it was a real dog-fight and this election has the potential to be even more competitive.\u00a0 In fact candidates further down the list, like the tenth place candidate in this poll, Labour Party Councillor Niall McNelis (on 5%) will feel that they can get themselves into the mix for that coveted last seat, in the two weeks left in the campaign from when this poll was taken.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Notes to Editors:<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is the second of TG4 \/ Ipsos MRBI constituency polls as part of TG4\u2019s election 2020 coverage. Next Tuesday (4th<\/sup> February) \u2018V\u00f3ta 2020\u2019 will report the Ipsos MRBI opinion poll in the Kerry constituency.
\n 
\n 
\nMethodology: <\/em><\/p>\n

In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down AIMRO and by ESOMAR.505 interviews were conducted via CATI (Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing). Respondents were selected from a database of both landline and mobile numbers created via Random Digit Dialling. The remaining 20 interviews were conducted face-to-face at two sampling points in the Mayo corner of the Galway West Constituency.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0 At analysis stage, the sample was weighted to align the profile of voters in this poll with the profile of Irish voters from the 2016 Irish Times\/Ipsos MRBI General Election Exit Poll. In addition, all respondents were asked how much their vote counts on a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 means it \u201cmakes no difference\u201d and 10 means it \u201cmakes all the difference\u201d. Those answering 1 to this question were treated as non-voters and were excluded from our candidate preference calculation, along with those who don\u2019t know how they will vote or said they will not vote.<\/span><\/em>
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Social Democrats and The Green Party in battle to take seats in 5-seater Galway West Constituency.   The results of a TG4\/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll carried out for \u2018V\u00f3ta 2020\u2019 programme shows a real dog-fight is in prospect in Galway West, with all five sitting TDs and as many as five other candidates all in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":876,"featured_media":111713,"parent":111527,"menu_order":7,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/template-pr.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTG4 | V\u00f3ta 2020 \u2013 Galway West TG4 \/ Ipsos MRBI Poll | 2020 | Press Releases | Press | Irish Television Channel, S\u00fail Eile<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The latest results from the 2020 Galway West TG4\/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta 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