{"id":112057,"date":"2020-02-04T19:00:31","date_gmt":"2020-02-04T19:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/?page_id=112057"},"modified":"2021-11-04T16:31:59","modified_gmt":"2021-11-04T16:31:59","slug":"vota-2020-kerry-tg4-ipsos-mrbi-poll","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/information\/press\/press-releases\/2020-2\/vota-2020-kerry-tg4-ipsos-mrbi-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00f3ta 2020 – Kerry TG4 \/ Ipsos MRBI Poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s election surge continues in Kerry, as Tralee\u2019s Pa Daly looks set to keep Martin Ferris\u2019s seat.<\/h3>\n

 
\nThe results of a new TG4\/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll carried out for the \u2018V\u00f3ta 2020\u2019<\/i><\/b>\u00a0programme shows a fascinating contest in store in Kerry for the five seats on offer.\u00a0 13 names are on the ballot and the competition is fierce.\u00a0 Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s Pa Daly looks set to set to pass the quota with 20% of first preference votes and to keep the seat that retiring party stalwart Martin Ferris has held since 2002, capitalising on the current wave of support that Sinn F\u00e9in have nationwide. Michael Healy Rae is in joint-first position with a first-preference vote of 20%.\u00a0 However, there is no certainty that his brother Danny will keep his seat, polling at 4%.\u00a0 Minister of State for Tourism and Sport, Fine Gael\u2019s Brendan Griffin reaches the quota needed with a first preference vote of 17% according to the poll which puts him in strong contention to take one of the five seats.<\/span><\/p>\n

What of the other two seats?\u00a0 There is quite a gap from between Brendan Griffin on 17 and the fourth-place candidate Norma Foley, Fianna F\u00e1il on 10%; as many as 5 of the remaining candidates will feel that they are in the running for the last two seats.
\n <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kerry Individual Party Support\u00a0<\/b>(1st preference)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 
\n <\/p>\n

Kerry Individual Party Support\u00a0<\/b>(1st preference)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nParty<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nPoll ’20<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nGE ’16<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Micheal HEALY RAE<\/span><\/td>\nIND<\/td>\n20%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n26%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pa DALY<\/span><\/td>\nSF<\/td>\n20%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brendan GRIFFIN<\/span><\/td>\nFG<\/td>\n17%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n12%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Norma FOLEY<\/span><\/td>\nFF<\/td>\n10%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cleo MURPHY<\/span><\/td>\nG<\/td>\n9%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John BRASSIL<\/span><\/td>\nFF<\/td>\n9%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike KENNELLY<\/span><\/td>\nFG<\/td>\n6%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Norma MORIARITY<\/span><\/td>\nFF<\/td>\n4%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Danny HEALY RAE<\/span><\/td>\nIND<\/td>\n4%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sonny FORAN<\/span><\/td>\nAON<\/td>\n5%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ted CRONIN<\/span><\/td>\nIND<\/td>\n1%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John BOWLER<\/span><\/td>\nIFP<\/td>\n0%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sean O’LEARY<\/span><\/td>\nIND<\/td>\n0%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 
\nThis survey was conducted among a sample of 538 adults aged 18 upwards in the Kerry constituency on behalf of TG4 by Ipsos MRBI. Interviewing took place on Saturday 1st and Sunday 2nd February. Margin of Error is +\/- 4%
\n <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kerry Constituency Party Support (1st preference)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nPoll ’20<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nGE ’16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Healy Rae<\/td>\n23%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n38%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fianna F\u00e1il<\/td>\n23%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n16%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fine Gael<\/td>\n23%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n21%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sinn F\u00e9in<\/td>\n20%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n12%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Green Party<\/td>\n9%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Labour<\/td>\nn\/a<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aont\u00fa<\/td>\n2%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nn\/a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Independent \/ Other<\/td>\n1%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Traditionally Kerry was split into two constituencies, Kerry North and Kerry South, with a combined representation of 6 seats in D\u00e1il \u00c9ireann. The 2016 General Election saw a significant change to this; a reduction in the representation to 5 seats and one single constituency covering the entire county. As ever, transfers will be vital, both where parties and areas are concerned.<\/p>\n

Party support has thrown up a fascinating result in that Fine Gael, Fianna F\u00e1il and the combined Healy Rae support are all tied at 23%; however the comparison with results from the General Election in 2016 will leave both main parties feeling considerably happier about that than the Healy Raes (FF up from 16%, FG up from 21%, Healy Raes down from 38%). Sinn F\u00e9in look set to increase their support to 20%, beating the quota in the process, while the Green Party look to have gained substantially from GE \u201916 to put themselves in the running for the last seat.<\/p>\n

2016 saw both Michael Healy Rae and Danny Healy Rae elected, along with Martin Ferris of Sinn F\u00e9in, Brendan Griffin of Fine Gael and John Brassil of Fianna F\u00e1il. Martin Ferris has decided not to contest this election, as has the Labour Party in Kerry; the first time since the 1930s when there has not been a Labour Party candidate in Kerry.<\/p>\n

Fianna F\u00e1il exceed a quota in terms of their combined support, and will win at least one seat according to the poll, but who will get it? John Brassil is the incumbent,but has only served one term and so could be vulnerable. Norma Foley, former Mayor of Kerry and daughter of the late Fianna F\u00e1il TD Denis Foley, is a very strong candidate and in this poll has pipped John Brassil, gaining 10% of first preferences compared to Brassil\u2019s 9%. The direction of the Fianna F\u00e1il seat in Kerry could well be determined by the transfers from the third FF candidate Norma Moriarty, currently back on 4%.<\/p>\n

What of the last seat? This poll has the following In the running are; the loser of the Foley\/Brassil battle, Green Party candidate Cleo Murphy (on 9%), Fine Gael\u2019s second candidate Mike Kennelly (on 6%) and also Danny Healy Rae, who while seemingly out of it on 4% but who may still have a chance as he will be chief beneficiary of his brother Michael\u2019s surplus transfers<\/p>\n

Both Cleo Murphy and Mike Kennelly are new candidates; Murphy is a former Radio Kerry journalist while Kennelly is a Listowel-based councillor and member of a famous GAA family.<\/p>\n

With the bottom four candidates (Sonny Foran from Aont\u00fa, independents Ted Cronin and Sean O\u2019Neill along with John Bowler from the Irish Freedom Party) at 2% or less, it is the direction of any surplus transfers from those elected early along with the order of elimination of the next candidates that will determine the result of the last seat in an intriguing battle. With several new candidates in the mix for the last seat, that\u2019s difficult to determine, however geography could well prove the key here, along with the Healy Rae factor of course.<\/p>\n

The Healy Raes will feel that they can pick up momentum in the last week before election day. While their efforts to divide the county between hem hasn\u2019t seemed to be effective up to now, they certainly won\u2019t be underestimated by the other candidates and may yet prevail.
\n <\/p>\n

Notes to the Editor:<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is the final in a series of TG4 \/Ipsos MRBI constituency polls as part of TG4\u2019s Election coverage.
\nThe margin of error is 4%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Methodology:<\/strong><\/p>\n

This survey was conducted among a sample of 538 adults aged 18 upwards in the Kerry constituency on behalf of TG4 by Ipsos MRBI. Interviewing took place on Saturday 1st and Sunday 2nd February. In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by AIMRO and by ESOMAR. Interviews were conducted via CATI (Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing). Respondents were selected from a database of both landline and mobile numbers created via Random Digit Dialling.
\nAt analysis stage, the sample was weighted to align the profile of voters in this poll with the profile of voters as indicated by the Irish Times\/Ipsos MRBI Exit Poll 2016. In addition, all respondents were asked how much their vote counts on a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 means it \u201cmakes no difference\u201d and 10 means it \u201cmakes all the difference\u201d. Those answering 1 to this question were treated as non-voters and were excluded from our candidate preference calculation, along with those who don\u2019t know how they will vote or said they will not vote.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s election surge continues in Kerry, as Tralee\u2019s Pa Daly looks set to keep Martin Ferris\u2019s seat.   The results of a new TG4\/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll carried out for the \u2018V\u00f3ta 2020\u2019\u00a0programme shows a fascinating contest in store in Kerry for the five seats on offer.\u00a0 13 names are on the ballot and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":876,"featured_media":111713,"parent":111527,"menu_order":8,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/template-pr.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTG4 | V\u00f3ta 2020 \u2013 Kerry TG4 \/ Ipsos MRBI Poll | 2020 | Press Releases | Press | Irish Television Channel, S\u00fail Eile<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The latest results from the 2020 Kerry TG4\/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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