{"id":13837,"date":"2016-02-09T19:30:02","date_gmt":"2016-02-09T19:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/?page_id=13837"},"modified":"2019-06-24T16:14:16","modified_gmt":"2019-06-24T15:14:16","slug":"09-02-16","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/information\/press\/press-releases\/2016-2\/09-02-16\/","title":{"rendered":"09.02.16"},"content":{"rendered":"

New TG4 Opinion Poll in Donegal shows FF may thwart SF\u2019s ambitous D\u00e1il hopes<\/h2>\n

A new opinion poll carried out for TG4 shows that Fianna F\u00e1il is poised to win two seats in Donegal and may well upset Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s plans to take three seats in that newly merged 5 seat constituency. Veteran\u00a0 FF candidate Pat the Cope Gallagher looks set to make a comeback to D\u00e1il \u00c9ireann and there is even a possibility that Sinn F\u00e9in might lose one of the two seats it held in the county coming into this election, depending on transfers in the later stages of the count.<\/p>\n

This\u00a0Ipsos MRBI opinion poll on Donegal voters\u2019 intentions was commissioned for the the channel\u2019s V\u00f3ta 2016<\/em> programme and broadcast this evening (Embargo 7.30pm).\u00a0 It indicates that outgoing Gaeltacht Minister of State Joe McHugh has a good chance of retaining a\u00a0single seat\u00a0for Fine Gael with outgoing Independent deputy Thomas Pringle fighting stiff competition from the bigger parties and other non-party candidates for the last seat.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Donegal Constituency Party Support<\/strong> (Number 1 Preference Vote)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sinn F\u00e9in\u00a0\u00a0 (SF)<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fianna F\u00e1il (FF)<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fine Gael (FG)<\/td>\n17%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Independent (Ind)<\/td>\n23%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Donegal Constituency Individual Candidate Support<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 (Number 1 Preference Vote)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pearse Doherty\u00a0 (SF)<\/td>\n19%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Charlie McConalogue\u00a0 (FF)<\/td>\n17%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Joe McHugh\u00a0 (FG)<\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pat the Cope Gallagher\u00a0 (FF)<\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P\u00e1draig Mac Lochlainn\u00a0 (SF)<\/td>\n9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Thomas Pringle\u00a0 (Ind)<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dessie Shiels\u00a0 (Ind)<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Paddy Harte\u00a0 (FG)<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Frank McBrearty Jnr\u00a0 (Ind)<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tim Jackson\u00a0 (Ind)<\/td>\n3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gary Doherty\u00a0 (SF)<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ian McGarvey\u00a0 (Ind<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Niamh Kennedy\u00a0 (Ind)<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

With over two weeks left to polling day, it is too early to make definitive pronouncements but FF\u00a0 is\u00a0 performing well ahead of its national vote and, based on these figures,\u00a0 may well take two seats. With FF polling this well,\u00a0 it is by no means certain that SF will take a second seat, which some commentators have been confidently predicting in view of that party\u2019s loyal following in the county and SF\u2019s progress in national polls during the lifetime of the last D\u00e1il.<\/p>\n

SF looks set to take a seat on the first count with Pearse Doherty on 19%.\u00a0\u00a0 This is two points over quota and subsequent transfers could make all the difference to P\u00e1draig Mac Lochlainn\u2019s chances of getting\u00a0 a second seat\u00a0 for that party at a later stage of the count.<\/p>\n

Charlie McConalogue, on 17%, looks set to take the second seat and the first seat for FF. The third and fourth seats look like going to Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) and Joe McHugh, (FG), both with 13% of the vote, although neither candidate reaches the quota and will have to rely on transfers. Pat The Cope Gallagher, a former Minister of State and MEP and long-standing politician in Donegal,\u00a0 should have the profile to attract sufficient transfers, while Joe McHugh looks set to benefit from transfers from FG running mate, Paddy Harte, who on 4% first preference votes looks certain to be \u00a0eliminated.<\/p>\n

Calling the fifth seat is nigh on impossible. A number of candidates are clustered together \u2013 P\u00e1draig Mac Lochlainn, (SF,\u00a0 9%), Thomas Pringle\u00a0 (Ind, 7%) and Dessie Shiels\u00a0\u00a0 (Ind,\u00a0 7%). If Pearse Doherty can poll comfortably above the quota, P\u00e1draig Mac Lochlainn may build up enough of a lead to be uncatchable, with the additional help of transfers from SF\u2019s\u00a0 third candidate, Gary Doherty, on just 2%. However, if it goes down to the wire, Thomas Pringle and Dessie Shiels, both Independents, will be relatively transfer-friendly and could be there to the bitter end.<\/p>\n

Note to Editors<\/strong>:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 This is the first of TG4\u2019s\u00a0 three constituency opinion polls in key constituencies along the west coast. Next week\u2019s V\u00f3a 2016<\/em>\u00a0 (7pm Tues 16 February)\u00a0 will report the Ipsos MRBI opinion poll being caried out in the Kerry constituency.<\/p>\n

V\u00f3ta 2016<\/em> news anchor Emer N\u00ed Chonaola is available for interview on the findings of this Donegal\u00a0 opinion poll.\u00a0 Contact\u00a0\u00a0 Linda N\u00ed Ghr\u00edofa 091 505228\u00a0\u00a0 linda.ni.ghriofa@dev.tg4.ie<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

(Note on Survey Methodology: This survey was conducted in the Donegal constituency on behalf of TG4 by Ipsos MRBI. among a sample of 500 adults aged 18 upwards. Interviewing\u00a0took place on Thursday 4th and Friday 5th February.\u00a0\u00a0 The survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by The Marketing Society of Ireland and by ESOMAR.\u00a0 Interviews were conducted via CATI [Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing]. Respondents were selected from a database of both landline and mobile numbers created via Random Digit Dialling.\u00a0 A survey sample of 500 attaches a margin of error of up to plus or minus 4 percentage points).<\/sup><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New TG4 Opinion Poll in Donegal shows FF may thwart SF\u2019s ambitous D\u00e1il hopes A new opinion poll carried out for TG4 shows that Fianna F\u00e1il is poised to win two seats in Donegal and may well upset Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s plans to take three seats in that newly merged 5 seat constituency. Veteran\u00a0 FF candidate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":876,"featured_media":0,"parent":6901,"menu_order":4,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/template-pr.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n09.02.16 - TG4<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"09.02.16 - TG4\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"New TG4 Opinion Poll in Donegal shows FF may thwart SF\u2019s ambitous D\u00e1il hopes A new opinion poll carried out for TG4 shows that Fianna F\u00e1il is poised to win two seats in Donegal and may well upset Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s plans to take three seats in that newly merged 5 seat constituency. 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