{"id":14768,"date":"2016-02-23T19:30:23","date_gmt":"2016-02-23T19:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/?page_id=14768"},"modified":"2019-06-24T16:17:41","modified_gmt":"2019-06-24T15:17:41","slug":"23-02-16","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/information\/press\/press-releases\/2016-2\/23-02-16\/","title":{"rendered":"23.02.16"},"content":{"rendered":"

New TG4 Election Poll shows Fine Gael holding on in Galway West<\/h2>\n

Sinn F\u00e9in set go gain as Labour struggle to hold seat<\/strong><\/p>\n

A new opinion poll for TG4\u00a0shows that Fine Gael may well succeed in holding on to two seats in the extended,\u00a0crowded\u00a0and keenly contested 5 seat Galway West constituency, for decades a Fianna F\u00e1il stronghold.\u00a0\u00a0 Sinn F\u00e9in has a good chance of winning a seat at the expense of Labour with the final seat looking set to be a cliff-hanger, as often before.<\/p>\n

Full details of the TG4 Ipsos MRBI opinion poll on Galway West voters\u2019 intentions, commissioned for the channel\u2019s V\u00f3ta 2016<\/em> programme, were broadcast this evening on TG4 at 7pm.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0The details are as follows:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Galway West Constituency Party Support<\/strong> (Number 1 Preference Vote)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fine Gael<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fianna F\u00e1il<\/td>\n21%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sinn F\u00e9in<\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lucht Oibre<\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P\u00e1irtithe Eile<\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Neamhsple\u00e1igh<\/td>\n21%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Galway West Individual Candidate Support<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 (Number 1 Preference Vote)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00c9amon \u00d3 Cu\u00edv (FF)<\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Se\u00e1n Kyne (FG)<\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John O’Mahony (FG)<\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Trevor \u00d3 Clochartaigh (SF)<\/td>\n11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Catherine Connolly (Ind)<\/td>\n8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Noel Grealish (Ind)<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hildegarde Naughton (FG)<\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Derek Nolan (Lab)<\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Niall \u00d3 Tuathail (SD)<\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mary Hoade (FF)<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John Connolly (FF)<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fidelma Healy Eames (Ind)<\/td>\n3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nicola Daveron (RN)<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike Cubbard (Ind)<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Seamus Sheridan (GP)<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tommy Holohan (A\/P)<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

(There are four other candidates standing in this constituency. In this opinion poll, they had a cumulative 1% share of the vote).<\/p>\n

Commentary:\u00a0<\/strong>The Galway West constituency is always hotly contested.\u00a0 Last time less than 3,000 votes separated the leading seven candidates.\u00a0\u00a0 Since then, the constituency boundaries have been extended and it now also includes a portion of south Mayo.\u00a0 With 20 names on the ballot, the competition for seats in next Friday\u2019s election will be even more intense.\u00a0 As ever, transfers will be vital as will the order in which various candidates are eliminated as the counts progress.<\/p>\n

The first two seats seem destined for Fine Gael and Fianna F\u00e1il. Se\u00e1n Kyne of Fine Gael shares the lead with 13% of first reference votes, approaching a quota and he is almost certain to be returned to D\u00e1il \u00c9ireann in 2016. \u00a0Also on 13% is \u00c9amon \u00d3 Cu\u00edv, nearly guaranteeing the veteran Fianna F\u00e1il stalwart and former Minister another D\u00e1il term, with the help of transfers from one of his Fianna F\u00e1il running mates if needed.<\/p>\n

While the FG share of the vote (30%) falls short of two quotas, a second seat for FG is likely here. \u00a0John O\u2019Mahony, on 11%, is the FG candidate next in line and is best positioned to take a second FG seat.\u00a0 While he is a Mayo man whose D\u00e1il career to date has been as a deputy in his native county, he is well known in Galway too and widely respected as the football manager who steered that county to two All-Ireland Senior titles.\u00a0 \u00a0He is also bringing some of his Mayo vote with him from that portion of the county that has now been added to the Galway West constituency.\u00a0 He will have transfers from the party\u2019s other representative, Hildegard Naughton to bolster his chances.\u00a0 Additionally and if he needs them, he would likely benefit from transfers from Derek Nolan, if the Labour candidate and outgoing TD is eliminated.<\/p>\n

Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s Trevor \u00d3 Clochartaigh looks set to build on his 2011 performance and will be in strong contention to take a seat at his second attempt. With 11% of first-preferences, this is a real possibility for him although transfers will be needed to reach the quota and Sinn F\u00e9in has traditionally struggled to attract significant transfers. It will be close.<\/p>\n

Independents Catherine Connolly (on 8%) and Noel Grealish (on 7%), together with Derek Nolan of Labour (on 6%) and Niall \u00d3 Tuathail of the Social Democrats (on 6%) will likely battle it out for the final seat. Independents and smaller parties are always transfer-friendly, while Nolan may benefit from some Fine Gael transfers \u2013 the last seat is impossible to call at this stage.<\/p>\n

Note to Editors<\/strong>: \u00a0 In addition their voting intentions, this poll asked Galway voters about the importance they attached to a supplied list of national issues. Details of their responses will also be revealed on tonight\u2019s V\u00f3ta 2016 <\/em>programme.
\nM\u00e1ire T N\u00ed Mhadaoin<\/strong> is available for interview on the findings of this Galway West opinion poll.
\nContact: Linda N\u00ed Ghr\u00edofa 091 505228\u00a0\u00a0 linda.ni.ghriofa@dev.tg4.ie<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

(Survey Methodology: \u00a0This survey was conducted among a sample of 515 adults aged 18 upwards in the Galway West Constituency on behalf of TG4 by Ipsos MRBI. Interviewing took place on the 18th<\/sup> and 19th<\/sup> of February. In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down AIMRO and by ESOMAR.\u00a0\u00a0 475 interviews were conducted via CATI (Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing). Respondents were selected from a database of both landline and mobile numbers created via Random Digit Dialling. The remaining 40 interviews were conducted face-to-face at four sampling points in the Ballinrobe area (Mayo county) the new portion of the Galway West Constituency).<\/sup><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New TG4 Election Poll shows Fine Gael holding on in Galway West Sinn F\u00e9in set go gain as Labour struggle to hold seat A new opinion poll for TG4\u00a0shows that Fine Gael may well succeed in holding on to two seats in the extended,\u00a0crowded\u00a0and keenly contested 5 seat Galway West constituency, for decades a Fianna […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":876,"featured_media":0,"parent":6901,"menu_order":7,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/template-pr.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n23.02.16 - TG4<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"23.02.16 - TG4\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"New TG4 Election Poll shows Fine Gael holding on in Galway West Sinn F\u00e9in set go gain as Labour struggle to hold seat A new opinion poll for TG4\u00a0shows that Fine Gael may well succeed in holding on to two seats in the extended,\u00a0crowded\u00a0and keenly contested 5 seat Galway West constituency, for decades a Fianna […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/information\/press\/press-releases\/2016-2\/23-02-16\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"TG4\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TG4TV\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-06-24T15:17:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/tg4-docs.s3.amazonaws.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/18151812\/TG4_2024_corcra_teal_1-1920x1080-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@TG4TV\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/information\/press\/press-releases\/2016-2\/23-02-16\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/en\/information\/press\/press-releases\/2016-2\/23-02-16\/\",\"name\":\"23.02.16 - 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