{"id":112055,"date":"2020-02-05T09:40:16","date_gmt":"2020-02-05T09:40:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/?page_id=112055"},"modified":"2020-02-07T09:47:23","modified_gmt":"2020-02-07T09:47:23","slug":"vota-2020-pobalbhreith-tg4-ipsos-mrbi-ciarrai","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/dev.tg4.ie\/ga\/eolas\/preas\/nuacht-raitis\/2020-2\/vota-2020-pobalbhreith-tg4-ipsos-mrbi-ciarrai\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00f3ta 2020 – Pobalbhreith TG4 \/ Ipsos MRBI Ciarra\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Borradh f\u00f3s faoi fheachtas toghch\u00e1in Shinn F\u00e9in i gCiarra\u00ed, agus an chos\u00falacht air go gcoinneoidh Pa Daly Thr\u00e1 L\u00ed su\u00edoch\u00e1n Martin Ferris<\/h3>\n

L\u00e9ir\u00edtear i dtortha\u00ed phobalbhreith d\u00e1ilcheantair nua TG4\/Ipsos MRBI don chl\u00e1r ‘V\u00f3ta 2020’<\/strong> go mbeidh s\u00e9 ina chom\u00f3rtas iontach i gCiarra\u00ed don ch\u00faig shu\u00edoch\u00e1n at\u00e1 le baint amach ansin. 13 ainm at\u00e1 ar an mball\u00f3id agus beidh ioma\u00edocht fh\u00edochmhar i gceist. Is cos\u00fail go s\u00e1r\u00f3idh Pa Daly Shinn F\u00e9in an cu\u00f3ta le 20% de na v\u00f3ta\u00ed c\u00e9adrogha agus coinneoidh s\u00e9 su\u00edoch\u00e1n Martin Ferris d\u00edlis at\u00e1 ag \u00e9ir\u00ed as an bp\u00e1irt\u00ed agus a bhfuil an su\u00edoch\u00e1n sin aige \u00f3 2002, agus \u00e9 ag baint leas as an rabharta taca\u00edochta at\u00e1 ag Sinn F\u00e9in ar fud na t\u00edre faoi l\u00e1thair. T\u00e1 20% de na v\u00f3ta\u00ed c\u00e9adrogha ag Michael Healy Rae chomh maith agus t\u00e1 s\u00e9 f\u00e9in agus Daly sa ch\u00e9ad \u00e1it faoi l\u00e1thair. Ach, n\u00ed f\u00e9idir a bheith cinnte go gcoinneoidh a dhearth\u00e1ir Danny a shu\u00edoch\u00e1n, \u00e1fach, agus gan de thaca\u00edocht aige ach 4% de r\u00e9ir na pobalbhreithe seo. T\u00e1 an cu\u00f3ta at\u00e1 de dh\u00edth bainte amach ag an Aire St\u00e1it sa Roinn Iompair Turas\u00f3ireachta agus Sp\u00f3irt, Brendan Griffin Fhine Gael le 17% de na v\u00f3ta\u00ed c\u00e9adrogha agus de r\u00e9ir na pobalbhreithe seo is iomaitheoir l\u00e1idir \u00e9 chun ceann den ch\u00faig shu\u00edoch\u00e1n at\u00e1 ann a thabhairt leis.<\/p>\n

Cad mar gheall ar an d\u00e1 shu\u00edoch\u00e1n eile? T\u00e1 bearna mh\u00f3r idir Brendan Griffin at\u00e1 ar 17% agus an t\u00e9 at\u00e1 sa cheathr\u00fa h\u00e1it, Norma Foley Fhianna F\u00e1il at\u00e1 ar 10%; beidh suas le 5 de na hiarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed eile ag meas go bhfuil siad f\u00e9in f\u00f3s san ioma\u00edocht don dh\u00e1 shu\u00edoch\u00e1n at\u00e1 fanta.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Taca\u00edocht na bP\u00e1irtithe i gCiarra\u00ed\u00a0<\/b>(V\u00f3ta Uimhir 1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nP\u00e1irt\u00ed<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nPB ’20<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nOll ’16<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Micheal HEALY RAE<\/span><\/td>\nIND<\/td>\n20%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n26%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pa DALY<\/span><\/td>\nSF<\/td>\n20%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brendan GRIFFIN<\/span><\/td>\nFG<\/td>\n17%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n12%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Norma FOLEY<\/span><\/td>\nFF<\/td>\n10%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cleo MURPHY<\/span><\/td>\nG<\/td>\n9%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John BRASSIL<\/span><\/td>\nFF<\/td>\n9%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike KENNELLY<\/span><\/td>\nFG<\/td>\n6%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Norma MORIARITY<\/span><\/td>\nFF<\/td>\n4%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Danny HEALY RAE<\/span><\/td>\nIND<\/td>\n4%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sonny FORAN<\/span><\/td>\nAON<\/td>\n5%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ted CRONIN<\/span><\/td>\nIND<\/td>\n1%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John BOWLER<\/span><\/td>\nIFP<\/td>\n0%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sean O’LEARY<\/span><\/td>\nIND<\/td>\n0%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 
\nRinne Ipsos MRBI an suirbh\u00e9 seo ar shampla 538 duine f\u00e1sta a bh\u00ed 18 mbliana n\u00f3 n\u00edos sine i nd\u00e1ilcheantar Chiarra\u00ed thar ceann TG4. Tion\u00f3ladh na hagallaimh D\u00e9 Sathairn agus D\u00e9 Domhnaigh an 1 agus 2 Feabhra. +\/- 4% an lamh\u00e1il earr\u00e1ide at\u00e1 i gceist.
\n 
\n <\/p>\n

Taca\u00edocht na bP\u00e1irtithe i nD\u00e1ilcheantar Chiarra\u00ed (V\u00f3ta Uimhir 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nPB ’20<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nOll ’16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Healy Rae<\/td>\n23%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n38%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fianna F\u00e1il<\/td>\n23%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n16%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fine Gael<\/td>\n23%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n21%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sinn F\u00e9in<\/td>\n20%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n12%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Green Party<\/td>\n9%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Labour<\/td>\nn\/a<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aont\u00fa<\/td>\n2%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\nn\/a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Independent \/ Other<\/td>\n1%<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bh\u00edodh Ciarra\u00ed briste suas ina dh\u00e1 dh\u00e1ilcheantar riamh, Ciarra\u00ed Thuaidh agus Ciarra\u00ed Theas, agus bh\u00ed ionada\u00edocht 6 shu\u00edoch\u00e1n i nD\u00e1il \u00c9ireann i gceist \u00f3n d\u00e1 dh\u00e1ilcheantar sin in \u00e9ind\u00ed. Th\u00e1inig athr\u00fa m\u00f3r air sin le linn Olltoghch\u00e1n 2016; laghda\u00edodh an ionada\u00edocht go dt\u00ed 5 shu\u00edoch\u00e1n agus rinneadh d\u00e1ilcheantar m\u00f3r amh\u00e1in den chontae ar fad. Mar is iond\u00fail, beidh na v\u00f3ta\u00ed aistrithe r\u00edth\u00e1bhachtach, maidir le p\u00e1irtithe agus ceantair.<\/p>\n

L\u00e9ir\u00edonn taca\u00edocht na bp\u00e1irtithe toradh f\u00edorsp\u00e9isi\u00fail ar fad, t\u00e1 an taca\u00edocht at\u00e1 ag Fine Gael, ag Fianna F\u00e1il agus ag muintir Healy Rae ar fad ar 23%; ach \u00e1bhar \u00e1thais a bheidh ann don d\u00e1 phr\u00edomhph\u00e1irt\u00ed le hais mhuintir Healy Rae agus na tortha\u00ed sin \u00e1 gcur i gcompar\u00e1id le tortha\u00ed Olltoghch\u00e1n 2016 (FF ardaithe \u00f3 16%, FG ardaithe \u00f3 21%, agus muintir Healy Rae tite \u00f3 38%). Is cos\u00fail go mbeidh m\u00e9ad\u00fa go dt\u00ed 20% ar an taca\u00edocht at\u00e1 ag Sinn F\u00e9in, agus an p\u00e1irt\u00ed ag s\u00e1r\u00fa an chu\u00f3ta ag an am c\u00e9anna, agus is cos\u00fail gur suntasach an t-ard\u00fa at\u00e1 bainte amach ag Comhaontas Glas le hais Olltoghch\u00e1n ’16 agus an p\u00e1irt\u00ed anois in ioma\u00edocht don su\u00edoch\u00e1n deiridh.<\/p>\n

Toghadh Michael Healy Rae agus Danny Healy Rae araon in 2016, chomh maith le Martin Ferris Shinn F\u00e9in, Brendan Griffin Fhine Gael agus John Brassil Fhianna F\u00e1il. T\u00e1 socraithe ag Martin Ferris gan p\u00e1irt a ghlacadh san olltoghch\u00e1n seo, mar aon le p\u00e1irt\u00ed an Lucht<\/p>\n

Oibre i gCiarra\u00ed; is \u00e9 seo an ch\u00e9ad uair nach raibh aon iarrth\u00f3ir ag p\u00e1irt\u00ed an Lucht Oibre i gCiarra\u00ed \u00f3 na 1930id\u00ed.<\/p>\n

S\u00e1ra\u00edonn Fianna F\u00e1il an cu\u00f3ta nuair a chuirtear taca\u00edocht ioml\u00e1n na n-iarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed le ch\u00e9ile, agus \u00e9ireoidh leis an bp\u00e1irt\u00ed su\u00edoch\u00e1n amh\u00e1in ar a laghad a bhaint amach de r\u00e9ir na pobalbhreithe, ach c\u00e9 a gheobhaidh \u00e9? Bh\u00ed su\u00edoch\u00e1n ag John Brassil sa Rialtas deiridh ach n\u00edl ach t\u00e9arma amh\u00e1in curtha isteach aige agus d’fh\u00e9adfadh seisean a bheith i mbaol d\u00e1 r\u00e9ir. Iarrth\u00f3ir an-l\u00e1idir \u00ed Norma Foley a bh\u00ed ina M\u00e9ara ar Chiarra\u00ed tr\u00e1th agus is in\u00edon \u00ed leis an Teachta D\u00e1la Denis Foley, nach maireann, agus t\u00e1 sise chun cinn de bheag\u00e1n ar John Brassil le 10% de na v\u00f3ta\u00ed c\u00e9adrogha faighte aici i gcompar\u00e1id le 9% Brassil. D’fh\u00e9adfadh treo shu\u00edoch\u00e1n Fhianna F\u00e1il i gCiarra\u00ed a bheith ag brath ar na haistrithe \u00f3 thr\u00ed\u00fa iarrth\u00f3ir FF, Norma Moriarty, at\u00e1 ar 4% faoi l\u00e1thair.<\/p>\n

Cad mar gheall ar an su\u00edoch\u00e1n deireanach? Is mar seo a leanas at\u00e1 an com\u00f3rtas don su\u00edoch\u00e1n deiridh de r\u00e9ir na pobalbhreithe; cib\u00e9 a chaillfidh an cath idir Foley\/Brassil, iarrth\u00f3ir Chomhaontas Glas Cleo Murphy (ar 9%), dara iarrth\u00f3ir Fhine Gael Mike Kennelly (ar 6%) agus Danny Healy Rae chomh maith, c\u00e9 go measfa\u00ed go bhfuil seisean as an \u00e1ireamh ar 4%, d’fh\u00e9adfadh s\u00e9 go bhfuil seans i gc\u00f3na\u00ed aige mar gur seisean is m\u00f3 a bhainfidh bunt\u00e1iste as aistrithe breise a dhearth\u00e1r Michael.<\/p>\n

Is iarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed nua iad Cleo Murphy agus Mike Kennelly araon; iar-iriseoir le Radio Kerry \u00ed Murphy agus is comhairleoir at\u00e1 lonnaithe i Lios Tuathail \u00e9 Kennelly a bhfuil aithne mh\u00f3r air mar gheall ar an mbaint mh\u00f3r at\u00e1 ag a theaghlach le c\u00farsa\u00ed CLG sa chontae.<\/p>\n

De bharr go bhfuil an ceathrar iarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed at\u00e1 ag \u00edochtar na pobalbhreithe (Sonny Foran \u00f3 Aont\u00fa, na neamhsple\u00e1igh Ted Cronin agus Sean O’Neill chomh maith le John Bowler \u00f3 \u00c9ire Amach: Cumann na Saoirse) ar 2% n\u00f3 n\u00edos l\u00fa, beidh an toradh maidir leis an su\u00edoch\u00e1n deireanach ag brath ar an treo a rachaidh aon aistrithe breise \u00f3 na hiarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed a thoghtar ar dt\u00fas chomh maith leis an ord ina gcuirtear iarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed eile as an \u00e1ireamh. De bharr go bhfuil roinnt iarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed nua sa t\u00f3ir ar an su\u00edoch\u00e1n deiridh, t\u00e1 s\u00e9 deacair a r\u00e1 c\u00e9 a gheobhaidh \u00e9, ach d’fh\u00e9adfadh go mbeadh tionchar m\u00f3r ag c\u00farsa\u00ed t\u00edreola\u00edochta sa ch\u00e1s sin, chomh maith leis an tionchar at\u00e1 ag muintir Healy Rae dar nd\u00f3igh.<\/p>\n

Beidh muintir Healy Rae ag ceapadh go mbeidh siad \u00e1balta dl\u00fas a chur faoina bhfeachtas an tseachtain deiridh roimh l\u00e1 na v\u00f3t\u00e1la. C\u00e9 go bhfuil an chos\u00falacht ar an sc\u00e9al nach smaoineamh \u00e9ifeachtach a bh\u00ed ann go dt\u00ed seo an contae a roinnt eatarthu, is maith a thuigeann na hiarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed eile an taca\u00edocht at\u00e1 acu agus d’fh\u00e9adfaid\u00eds an su\u00edoch\u00e1n a fh\u00e1il.
\n\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00f3ta\u00ed d’Eagarth\u00f3ir\u00ed:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Is \u00ed seo an phobalbhreith deiridh i sraith phobalbhreitheanna MRBI mar chuid de chl\u00fadach Olltoghch\u00e1in TG4.
\n4% an lamh\u00e1il earr\u00e1ide at\u00e1 i gceist.
\n <\/p>\n

Modheola\u00edocht<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rinne Ipsos MRBI an suirbh\u00e9 seo ar shampla 538 duine f\u00e1sta a bh\u00ed 18 mbliana n\u00f3 n\u00edos sine i nd\u00e1ilcheantar Chiarra\u00ed thar ceann TG4. Tion\u00f3ladh na hagallaimh D\u00e9 Sathairn agus D\u00e9 Domhnaigh an 1 agus 2 Feabhra. Ar gach sl\u00ed, chuathas i mbun an tsuirbh\u00e9 seo laistigh de na treoirl\u00ednte at\u00e1 leagtha amach ag AMIRO agus ESOMAR. Rinneadh na hagallaimh le CATI (agallaimh theileaf\u00f3in r\u00edomhchuidithe). Rinneadh na freagr\u00f3ir\u00ed a roghn\u00fa \u00f3 bhunachar sonra\u00ed d’uimhreacha l\u00ednte tal\u00fan agus d’uimhreacha f\u00f3in p\u00f3ca a crutha\u00edodh tr\u00ed Dhiaili\u00fa Uimhreacha Randamacha.<\/p>\n

Ag an gc\u00e9im anail\u00edse, rinneadh an sampla a ual\u00fa chun go mbeadh s\u00e9 ag teacht le pr\u00f3if\u00edl na v\u00f3t\u00e1laithe sa phobalbhreith seo agus le pr\u00f3if\u00edl na v\u00f3t\u00e1laithe arna tabhairt le fios ag an bPobalbhreith d\u00edreach tar \u00e9is V\u00f3t\u00e1la ar Olltoghch\u00e1n 2016 a rinne an Irish Times\/Ipsos MRBI. Ina theannta sin, iarraidh ar na freagr\u00f3ir\u00ed go l\u00e9ir an luach at\u00e1 lena v\u00f3ta ar sc\u00e1la 1 go 10 a thabhairt le fios, agus gurbh \u00e9 a bh\u00ed i gceist le 1 “nach nd\u00e9anann s\u00e9 aon difr\u00edocht” agus gurbh \u00e9 a bh\u00ed i gceist le 10 “d\u00e9anann s\u00e9 go leor difr\u00edochta”. Caitheadh leis an dream a thug 1 mar fhreagra ar an gceist seo mar dhaoine nach gcaitheann v\u00f3ta agus cuireadh as an \u00e1ireamh iad \u00f3nar \u00e1ireamh maidir le rogha iarrth\u00f3ir\u00ed, chomh maith leo sin nach bhfuil a fhios acu c\u00e9 dh\u00f3 a chaithfidh siad v\u00f3ta n\u00f3 a d\u00fairt nach mbeidh siad ag v\u00f3t\u00e1il.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Borradh f\u00f3s faoi fheachtas toghch\u00e1in Shinn F\u00e9in i gCiarra\u00ed, agus an chos\u00falacht air go gcoinneoidh Pa Daly Thr\u00e1 L\u00ed su\u00edoch\u00e1n Martin Ferris L\u00e9ir\u00edtear i dtortha\u00ed phobalbhreith d\u00e1ilcheantair nua TG4\/Ipsos MRBI don chl\u00e1r ‘V\u00f3ta 2020’ go mbeidh s\u00e9 ina chom\u00f3rtas iontach i gCiarra\u00ed don ch\u00faig shu\u00edoch\u00e1n at\u00e1 le baint amach ansin. 13 ainm at\u00e1 ar an […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":876,"featured_media":111713,"parent":111525,"menu_order":8,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-templates\/template-pr.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nV\u00f3ta 2020 - Pobalbhreith TG4 \/ Ipsos MRBI Ciarra\u00ed | Preas R\u00e1iteas | TG4<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"V\u00f3ta 2020 - 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